Doomsday looms; the imminent extinction of Hydrocarbon Man (and woman)

April 26th, 2007 at 11:01am reckless G 277

We hear a lot about global warming lately and the resulting doomsday scenario in which the human race will face dislocation, famine, disease and possibly extinction. The projected timeframe for this catastrophe is within 50 to 100 years. But there is a much more dire emergency facing us that barely anyone in the mainstream media or politics is discussing…Peak Oil. This is the phenomenon originally known as Hubbert’s Peak after Geophysicist Dr. M. King Hubbert. His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then, but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate.

Most scientists agree that the world reached its peak in oil discovery and recovery between 2003 and 2005 and we are now in decline. As demand rises (with developing countries requiring more oil) and production falls, the prices will rise dramatically, creating economic collapse on a scale never before experienced.

The middle class will essentially disappear overnight. No one except the very wealthy will be able to afford to travel either by car or plane. Food, which relies heavily on petroleum for its production as well as distribution will become so scarce and expensive, many will face starvation. Those of us who currently enjoy the “extras” such as cellphone and internet service, cable tv, entertainment and dining at restaurants, will have to give all of that up just to pay for rent and food. And forget medical care altogether. The cost of producing and distributing medications will render them unattainable to all but the top one percent of our population. This situation will result in a downward spiraling economy. Hundreds of thousands of businesses will go under and millions will be out of work. With our current population there won’t be enough for all, so crime will increase. Anyone who has prepared by storing food and goods will be a target for those willing to use violence to take it. Imagine the social and political collapse this will create. It’s going to be ugly! And when do most experts expect this economic collapse due to scarce expensive oil to occur? Within five to twenty years!

Global warming is not our biggest problem, peak oil is. What are we doing about it? For the most part, nothing. Although there are some people and communities who are making efforts to deal with a Post-Oil society. Carbondale Economic Localization is one such group of people. They have been taking inventory of what resources we have here in the Roaring Fork Valley and what we need to obtain to be able to survive the coming crisis. The main emphasis is on local food production. From CEL’s recently researched projections, it’s become clear that the current population of the Valley cannot be sustained on what we now produce or even what could ideally be produced given the limited viable ag land we have available. Some of us are going to have to leave. But this problem will take care of itself. When prices start rising and jobs disappear, there will be a mass exodus.

Perhaps our saving grace is our isolation. No one is going to migrate to this land of harsh climate and limited opportunities for a better chance at survival. In the wake of the great national emergency we will essentially be forgotten and neglected, left to fend for ourselves. Are we ready? How about you? Do you know how to grow your own food, hunt, make your own clothing, shelter, and most important…can you make a fire with nothing but sticks? If not, you’d better start learning now. After all of the food and Bic lighters have been looted from City Market, we’re going to be on our own.

Doomsday is literally at our doorstep.

http://www.crudeawakening.org/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm

http://www.relocalize.net/groups/cel

Entry Filed under: Environment, Colorado

19 Comments Add your own

1. Mitch.Mulhall | April 27th, 2007 at 7:53 am

Reckless,

[After all of the food and Bic lighters have been looted from City Market, we’re going to be on our own.]

Now I know why you get invites to all the best parties.;-)

Cheers,
2. Mitch.Mulhall | April 27th, 2007 at 9:20 am

Reckless,

Have you seen this:

"The Saudi interior ministry issued a statement saying that the 172 detainees held in raids today were involved in plots to carry out suicide atttacks against “public figures, oil facilities, refineries ... and military zones". Some of the planned targets were outside the Saudi kingdom."
~(http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1715934.ece)

Forget "Peak Oil." Had these terrorists destroyed or significantly damaged the Oil Production infrastructure in the ME, the kinds of effects you describe would occur much sooner--like mid-summer.

Cheers,
3. reckless G | April 27th, 2007 at 10:15 am

[Now I know why you get invites to all the best parties.;-)]

Yeah, I’m a real hoot.

[Had these terrorists destroyed or significantly damaged the Oil Production infrastructure in the ME, the kinds of effects you describe would occur much sooner--like mid-summer.]

Precisely. My point is that we are in a very vulnerable and precarious position. Most Americans just assume that technology will solve everything and mankind will continue to enjoy the current level of comfort and prosperity we’re all accustomed to. They don’t realize that all of this is possible only because of fossil fuels which are not only running out, but the remaining reserves are in control of people who don’t care for us all that much. As oil becomes scarcer, the great powers of the world (Russia, China, US, EU) will engage in a violent struggle to obtain what is left.

The death throes of our society have already begun.
4. Wharf Rat | April 27th, 2007 at 11:06 am

Reckless,

Great post. I first became aware of the Peak Oil theory about three years ago and did a lot of reading about it. It is a very compelling theory in that it moves one's thinking away from "how much oil is left" to "how much oil is left to sustain current economic growth rates." An catastrophic economic collapse is much more likely than an immediate Mad Max scenario; however, I don't think you're too far off base in the extreme implications if the theory proves to be true and the world cannot work to seamlessly transition to alternative energy sources.

An equally intriguing theory, if you are aware of it, is the possibility that hydrocarbons are not actually "fossil" fuels and instead are formed in the earth's mantle. An exploration boring is currently under construction to determine the validity of the theory, but as you might expect, drilling six miles or more and retreiving natural gasses from the mantle may prove to be extremely problematic. There is fairly decent circumstantial evidence that the mantle produces methane and in theory the supply would be virtually limitless.

I lump both theories together due to the fact that it is difficult to imagine two more polar opposite visions of the future: a rapid and unprecedented retreat from the exponential growth and development of technology experienced by humankind or an inconceivably fortuitous discovery that bails humanity out from its myopic and senseless determination to overconsume and ignore the needs of future generations.
5. reckless G | April 27th, 2007 at 12:21 pm

Thanks Wharf Rat, excellent observations and postulations.

Regarding the possibility of transitioning to an as yet undiscovered fuel source, near the end of the film A Crude Awakening (website link above), mention is made of the human tendency to deny or discredit a problem because of the unwillingness to accept having to undergo change (ie substance abusers). Whenever I talk to people about this I hear the same types of answers; “Oh science will come up with a solution,” “We’ll find another fuel source,” “The government knows what it’s doing, they won’t let us down,” etc. It’s exactly why we won’t be able to make a smooth transition into an alternative lifestyle, because people don’t believe it’s really happening, that we really do need to prepare to make drastic changes.

I’ve been making preparations for years to live out my elderly days in a primitive state. I’ve had to do this somewhat clandestinely because people who predict doomsday and preach preparedness are looked upon as kooks. But now I’m finding more and more likeminded souls all around me, particularly in the CEL organization (link also above). It seems there may be an underground movement that is preparing to survive a drastic upheaval.

But let me take the Pollyanna approach for a moment…there is a remote possibility that a super new fuel source will be discovered, if you look at the example of history; from wood, to whale oil, to fossil fuel. And nuclear energy certainly fits the bill, despite its obvious drawbacks. Maybe I just don’t have enough faith. Still, it’s not impractical to learn a few survival techniques.

Speaking of which, have you ever tried to start a fire with sticks or flint? It’s really f***ing hard! Up until just a hundred years ago or so, humans had been doing it that way for millions of years. It’s pretty discouraging that we’ve lost all of those primitive skills already.
6. Mitch.Mulhall | April 27th, 2007 at 11:09 pm

[have you ever tried to start a fire with sticks or flint? It’s really f***ing hard!]

I carry a scratched up, toy magnifying glass in my fishing vest. Want to start a fire? Grab a fist-full of cheat grass and chase off the clouds and night.

Cheers,
7. reckless G | May 1st, 2007 at 6:32 am

Magnifying glass, great idea. I think I’ll buy a few hundred. But then…what about when it’s cloudy, raining, snowing, or dark? And a hundred or so years from now, when all of the toy magnifying glasses are broken or lost, how will our great grandchildren make fire if we’ve never taught them?

See this isn’t really about my own survival. I have a granddaughter who’s 10. While I may never see the end of cheap oil, she certainly will. It is her generation that will be out in the cold. We have a responsibility to future generations to pass on the knowledge of agriculture, animal husbandry, and primitive domestic skills.

People may scoff at the idea that our society will have to give up the notion of cheap energy and go back to a primitive lifestyle, but just look at the facts. The oil that we’ve been extracting now for a hundred years was formed during a short period a few million years ago. It’s a finite resource, and it’s almost gone. So far I don’t see any alternative on the horizon. Insead of putting our money and brains toward finding an alternative energy source, we’re busy waging wars, watching tv, and busying ourselves with all kinds of petty distractions. We don’t even talk about Peak Oil let alone work on finding a solution.

The simple fact is, without oil, this civilizion just doesn’t work. The planet can’t support six billion of us. The only question is, who will survive and who will perish? If you’re putting all of your eggs in the fossil fuel basket, well…goodbye.
8. Mitch.Mulhall | May 1st, 2007 at 9:06 pm

[...when all of the toy magnifying glasses are broken or lost, how will our great grandchildren make fire if we’ve never taught them?]

Reckless--you were pointing out how difficult it was to start a fire with sticks or flynt. The magnifying glass was just a suggestion.

With or without fossil fuels, isn't the hope to impart to your grandchildren the ability to start a fire, while no doubt valuable, setting your sights low?

Cheers,
9. reckless G | May 2nd, 2007 at 6:07 am

[With or without fossil fuels, isn't the hope to impart to your grandchildren the ability to start a fire, while no doubt valuable, setting your sights low?]

How so? Isn't teaching our offspring basic survival skills the imperative of all animal species?
10. Jeff | May 2nd, 2007 at 7:24 am

Yum, I get all tingly when I wallow in eschatology. Gore is great, he gave me a great end-is-coming scenario that's so fun to fantasize about. But this is even better. I'm just bummed it didn't start in 1970 like the experts predicted.

What bothers me is if they were wrong about peak oil happening in 1970, perhaps we're being conned when they say peak oil is coming soon. So I just don't know if I should go out and buy a survival kit now, or wait another twenty or thirty years.

THE END IS COMING! I feel the tingle!
11. reckless G | May 2nd, 2007 at 7:47 am

[What bothers me is if they were wrong about peak oil happening in 1970, perhaps we're being conned when they say peak oil is coming soon.]

“They” weren’t wrong about Peak Oil in 1970. Hubbert’s Peak stated that United States oil production would peak in 1965-70, and it DID! Now we’re talking about World Oil, which has already peaked. We’re on the downslope of oil production, but demand is steadily rising. What does that tell you?

Last night on C-Span, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett gave an hour long presentation in the House about Peak Oil with lots of charts from the US Army Corps of Engineers (study; Energy Trends and their Implications) and the GAO. The fact is we’ve already found 95% of the existing oil reserves in the world. It’s predicted that because of scarcity, a barrel of oil will go up to $180 within the next few years. That’s 3 times what it is now.

Laugh all you want funny boy, let’s see how you feel when you’re paying $9 a gallon.
12. Mitch.Mulhall | May 2nd, 2007 at 8:56 am

[Isn't teaching our offspring basic survival skills the imperative of all animal species?]

I've got young children, and, for immensely practicable reasons, I don't want any of them knowing how to start a fire yet...

Cheers,
13. reckless G | May 2nd, 2007 at 8:58 am

heh heh, good point...better hide the magnifying glass!
14. Wharf Rat | May 2nd, 2007 at 12:57 pm

Reckless,

I enjoyed your comment regarding rudimentary fire-starting efforts. Reminded me of Tom Hanks and his comical experimentation in Cast Away.

The author of one of the Peak Oil books I read is a former attorney who decided to bail out and make plans to live in a small sustainable community. I think most would consider that to be an overreaction and probably socially unacceptable. In many circles, it is socially unacceptable to even talk about it.

I have not made any specific life modifications to address specific "world catastrophe" scenarios, believing it is more practical to focus on efforts to reduce my personal consumption and encourage others to think proactively, regardless of their ultimate vision of the future.

Unlike many who criticize both the global warming "alarmists" and those who identify environmental hazards resulting from human population and industrialization, I do not believe addressing such issues fosters an environment of fear--except perhaps to those who have succumbed to the fear-mongering efforts of our current administration who prey on the irrational fear of "terrorists" to the extent that they would support the waste of half a trillion dollars on a frolic and detour in Iraq.

To the contrary, I found Gore's movie refreshing in that he actually encouraged us to consider the consequences of our actions on future generations. I have no idea whether global warming will turn out to be influenced by mankind or whether it is a naturally-occurring phenomenon. Likewise, I recognize that Peak Oil is a theory that is based upon the facts of oil supply as we know it and speculation regarding the economic and social ramifications. However, I applaud anyone who has the courage to address the condition of the estate that will be inherited by our heirs (which will likely come with a rather substantial estate tax).

Thanks for bringing up the Peak Oil issue. Agree or disagree, at least readers are aware of it and it may stir the imagination of a future scientist that we are all counting on to solve future energy problems.
15. reckless G | May 2nd, 2007 at 1:17 pm

[I applaud anyone who has the courage to address the condition of the estate that will be inherited by our heirs]

Thanks Rat, I have to admit to feeling a little sheepish about this issue, as I generally dismiss others who rant about the End Times as either religious nuts or environmental alarmists. Up until recently I thought we had maybe twenty or so years left before the ramifications of our gluttonous society were felt, but having been exposed to more and more research lately, I’m seeing the “end” looming nearer.

An interesting thing about Peak Oil…the Arab embargo of the 70’s actually pushed it out by about five years due to our forced conservation at that time. Goes to show that with a little conscientious effort we could prolong the inevitable. When Hubbert warned us back in the 50’s he advised voluntary conservation and research into alternative fuels. We ignored him of course and now we face the consequences.

I appreciate everyone who is contributing to this post. Very few people want to discuss this enormous problem and I understand why. It’s daunting to think about having to reorder our entire lives to accommodate dwindling fuel supplies. But it’s no use avoiding the issue, the truth will catch up to us in no time.

By the way, I’m wondering where alpha6 is. I fully expected a list of sources refuting my claims. How has he been able to resist?
16. Wharf Rat | May 2nd, 2007 at 1:42 pm

Reckless,

I think part of the problem is the Chicken Little effect from the seventies. Unfortunately, since thirty years have elapsed without meaningful impacts on the new Second Amendment (the right to bear cars), it is easy for most people to discount the possibility of a true oil crisis. When the Yugo gave birth to the Hummer, oil consumption Darwinism continued relatively unabated until recently.

Also, in reading about the huge turnout at the affordable housing meeting the other night and reading some of the comments, I am reminded that most people in the U.S. are still trying very hard to feed their family and put a roof over their heads. Most in the rest of the world are in more subsistence situations. Why would those people give a wharfrat's *** about global warming and peak oil.

The same phenomenon occurs in Africa, where conservation efforts to eradicate poaching and preserve big game from extinction by predominately western foundations are met with incredulity by natives who see an elephant tusk as a rather large commission to put into their 401(k).
17. Jeff | May 2nd, 2007 at 1:54 pm

G, I hope you have a list of end-of-civilization theories. If not, I found one in a few moments on Google. Pretty interesting, seriously. Indeed, I think one could easily add an asteroid impact to their list of worries. The alien invasion seems less likely, however, but...

http://home.att.net/~thehessians/moderndisaster.html

The weird thing is they left out global warming and peak oil. What's with that!? I guess the list is more end-of-world type stuff.

As for your statement that "Some of us are going to have to leave" I assume you'd do that since you're a responsible citizen? Or are you thinking you'd stay and others would leave?

Which brings up the point that living far from food sources is indeed energy inefficient. Living in mountain towns is thus irresponsible. Anyone who cares about truly reducing their environmental impact should move to a climate where food is grown nearby and less heating or AC is used. All these folks in Carbondale yammering about how efficient they are or want to be need to realize the best thing they could do to save the world is simply move away -- so good point G.
18. reckless G | May 2nd, 2007 at 2:30 pm

Jeff, you are correct in classifying Peak Oil as an “end of civilization” theory rather than an “end of the world” theory. After the fall of civilization, the world will continue on without us, and will be immeasurably better off. It’s useless to talk about humanity surviving an asteroid impact, deadly virus, or nuclear holocaust. Peak Oil is survivable, but like I said, only by a choice few who have prepared themselves. Aboriginal societies and the Amish have a good chance since they never bought into the technology thing.

[As for your statement that "Some of us are going to have to leave" I assume you'd do that since you're a responsible citizen?]

Sorry to disappoint you Jeff, but I will be staying on in the Valley. Part of the reason I moved here ten years ago was to establish myself in a place where I could survive the end of civilization. Those who live in cities, or anywhere near large populations will be at risk of perishing from starvation, disease and violence.

Those who originally settled the Valley were able to survive without oil or technology, so why can’t we? I am learning to grow food, fish, hunt, make my own shelter and clothes (by spinning wool into yarn) just like the pioneers did. I and my offspring will be some of the lucky ones who saw the crisis coming and prepared to meet it. Anyone who thinks storing water and food is all they need to do to survive is sadly misguided.

When the oil is gone, so is our current way of life. Do you know how many products in daily use are made from oil? Millions! Do you know that in modern food production practices, for every one calorie of food, it takes the equivalent of ten calories of fossil fuel energy to produce?

Unlike Christian End Times beliefs, Peak Oil is real and it’s happening now. The evidence is irrefutable. Anyone who would like to see a video that explains this crisis in detail, let me know, I’ll send you a copy.
19. Mitch.Mulhall | May 2nd, 2007 at 10:24 pm

[All these folks in Carbondale yammering about how efficient they are or want to be need to realize the best thing they could do to save the world is simply move away...]

Jeff--You miserable git. Where in that declaration is your humanity, your sense of community, your message of tolerance?

Don't you realize how far we've come from the days you could loose teeth in a fight at the Black Nugget? Aren't you grateful for a local economy that is not dependent on coal mining, but one that embraces people who spin wool into yarn?

I for one thank the forces that animate Tibetan prayer flags that people molded by this ethereal, hand-spun fabric have made a long-term commitment to survive here while the pitiful remnants of this valley whither up and die or move away under the black army of fossil fuels, arrogance, and unrelenting bovine flatulence.

You would do well, Jeff, to welcome this thinking.

Cheers,