Money Talks, Obama Walks

July 23rd, 2008 at 10:58am reckless G 277

According to a majority of economists at U.S. banks and research groups polled by Reuters; “The economy has supplanted the Iraq war as the main issue in the November presidential election between Arizona Sen. McCain and Illinois Sen. Obama” and “The U.S. stock market would fare better in the first year after a victory by Republican presidential candidate John McCain than by his Democratic rival Barack Obama.” This despite the fact that “The poll also found that Obama held a 7-point lead over McCain in the presidential race, and had a small edge on the question of who would best manage the economy.”

So to sum up; the economy is the main issue in the election and would fare better in the first year of a McCain presidency, even though Obama would best manage the economy and holds the lead in the presidential race. Are these economists schizophrenic? How accurate are economic projections anyway? Where do economists get the statistics to base their projections on?

In “Accuracy in Short Supply In Flood of U.S. Statistics,” Jonathan Fuerbringer relates;“The government's system of gathering economic statistics, much like the nation's highway network, is badly in disrepair. Statisticians and economists, both in and out of government, say that a combination of budget cuts and deregulation - much of it a legacy of the Reagan era - is eroding important yardsticks and undermining policy makers striving to guide the economy. Furthermore, despite an effort by the Bush administration to reverse the trend, statistical agencies face more spending restraint this year. This could compound the damage, hurting some well-known reports, including the index of leading economic indicators, and reducing the frequency of data collection or eliminating some data altogether. Efforts to improve other gauges that professionals consider imprecise -notably those for retail sales and foreign trade - will also have to be set aside, officials said.”

Alright maybe the economists got it wrong, due to faulty intelligence. Still, when it comes to elections, emotional perception is the rule and economists are just voters like the rest of us. So the statement; “Obama has called for a $50 billion economic stimulus package on top of the $152 billion plan passed earlier this year. McCain has proposed low income taxes and incentives for small businesses as ways to boost the economy,” reinforces the perception that Democrats are “tax and spenders” and Republicans are “better for business.”

If indeed “it’s the economy, stupid,” then Obama is danger of becoming the first black candidate to fail in a bid for the presidency. Still an achievement, but not quite what Obama supporters are hoping for. Especially those who have promised a steak dinner to some of us who believe McCain will be our next president.

BTW Michael, I like mine medium rare.

Entry Filed under: Politics, Colorado, United Post