Several people have now weighed in on the question; what’s going on with gas prices? Post blogger Mitch Mulhall gives his analysis of the fuel price fluctuation, “Last weekend OPEC deferred a decision to reduce production” he writes; “Since Monday, the price of a barrel of light crude has dropped almost $14 and is on the cusp of dropping into the $39 range, a level not seen since December, 2004.” Mitch also has a prediction about where we’re headed from here.
In comment #1, Adam_R responds to the question; “What’s going on with gas prices.” He writes, “If everyone paid attention and kept conserving fuel, demand would stay low and so would prices. However, I'm not convinced Joe Consumer recognizes this, and the 'vicious cycle' will continue.” Here’s your opportunity to answer this short questionnaire as Adam_R did, and let us know your opinion.
Colorado motorists are paying over $2.00 a gallon less than we were in July. Are we crazy for feeling gypped out of all that money over the summer? Or are we crazy for thinking we can just slip back into our old driving habits and forget developing alternative fuel sources all over again? Here’s your chance to weigh in and tell us what you think is going on.
There seems to be an irresistible temptation to equate bus trips with vehicle trips, as though 5 million annual riders are equal to 5 million cars taken off the road. Converting ridership to vehicle trips is not nearly that easy, and is never exact. For example, transit creates a number of induced trips – trips that would not have been taken if not for the presence of the bus service. Past RFTA surveys have reported that more than a third of bus passengers did not have a private vehicle available at the time of their trip.
Once upon a time, the rail corridor that runs the length of the Roaring Fork Valley was purchased by local governments, with the help of the federal government.
A Corridor Investment Study (CIS) was completed by RFTA in 2003 to serve as a long range plan for the use of the old rail bed. The scope of the study encompassed transportation options in general and the current state of, and future expectations for, conditions on Highway 82.
The CIS predicted huge increases in traffic volume and subsequent congestion, and proposed a mass transit program which would have no effect on the problem. By the year 2025, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system would result in less congestion than the “No-Action” alternative at only one of nineteen selected locations along Highway 82.
Transit is very conducive to empirical analysis. Translation: Since you can count, measure and time every detail of a transit system, the use of real information to evaluate what the public is getting for its money is both easy and advisable. Otherwise, without some factual basis to evaluate what transit does now and how much more it can potentially do, public policy decisions will be based on perception and assumption - or perhaps on nothing at all.
RFTA is about to propose a major service expansion, so this is an ideal time to gain some insight into the standard statistical tools used to measure transit performance, consider which numbers really matter or apply, and propose some new data points for weighing where we are and where we might want to go from here.
With apologies to Abraham Lincoln, some of the people can ride the bus all of the time, all of the people could ride the bus some of the time, but not all of the people will ride the bus all of the time.
And it’s not a matter of how much room is on the bus; mass transit of any kind is limited to a particular kind of service. There must be a match between the type of trip a traveler is making, and the trip that transit can provide.
If:
1. you regularly travel from a particular Point A to the same Point B;
2. you don’t need to take, or pick up, more stuff than you can easily carry;
3. your Point B is located at a convenient walking distance from a transit stop;
4. you generally spend a significant amount of time at Point B;
5. and you usually return directly to Point A;
you may potentially be a regular customer for mass transit. You may still decide not to use the bus based on personal preference, but at least your Limited-purpose travel needs match the limited capability of transit service.
“Limited-purpose” is a term created for this discussion to better describe the core transit customer, and to reinforce the point that it isn’t about the person, it’s about the trip. For example, the term “commuter” is often used to imply someone who could be taking the bus. However, not all commuters travel to a location close to a mass transit stop, and commuters often need to carry things, or make other trips, before returning to Point A. A commuter isn’t necessarily making a Limited-purpose trip suitable for mass transit, even though many such trips are made by commuters.
On the other hand, if:
1. you usually start from the same Point A, but Point B could be anywhere;
2. Point B is just one of several destinations;
3. one or more of your destinations is nowhere near a mass transit stop;
4. very little time is spent at one or more destinations;
5. you need to take, or pick up, more stuff than you can comfortably carry;
you aren’t likely to be a mass transit customer regardless of your personal preference. Your “Multi-purpose” trips just don’t match the service which mass transit can provide.
The type of trip determines whether it is practical to even consider using transit services, but this overriding principle receives very little attention. We no longer notice the very obvious circumstance which confirms the limited application of mass transit, and we have lost sight of the consequences.
Because mass transit is not sufficiently cost effective, in large part because not enough of our trips fit the Limited-purpose profile, private companies are unable to offer this service. This is why mass transit is a government program supported with tax dollars.
People whose lives don’t fit a bus schedule have no moral obligation to be subsidizing the transportation costs of people whose lives do happen to fit a bus schedule – but it certainly turns out that way. Perhaps someday a simple thank you would be in order.
What is the rationale for having a tax subsidized transit program?
Some transit proponents insist that mass transit reduces traffic congestion, and, in the extreme case of the Entrance to Aspen, that transit can even serve as a substitute for an adequate highway. Effects on congestion and pollution are too minimal to matter anywhere but the most densely populated urban environment, and there is no substitute for adequate public infrastructure - regardless of whether the subject is highways, hospitals, or sewage treatment plants.
Transit is a very nice public amenity, and is no doubt appreciated by our visitors, but neither attribute explains why it shouldn’t be paying its own way.
So, from a public policy perspective, the only social need that can justify tax subsidized transit services is the benefit to those citizens who are either too young, too old, or too broke to own and operate their own vehicle. We should evaluate transit funding in the context of the value of their mobility compared to competing social needs.
The sponsors of this public discussion ask only that the conversation be relevant to the actual conditions in our area, not New York or LA, and suggest that assessing the value of, and appropriate expenditure for, mass transit should be based on verifiable benefits, not ideological faith.
Next: Part II
Is it possible to have enough mass transit? How do you know when you get there?
There is something about the name Cape Foulweather that fascinates me. My mind races with thoughts ranging from the history of the area and wanting to know the facts, to images of a full length feature film of mystery and suspense starring Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Jack Nicholson. I wish there was an actual town of Cape Foulweather. I would consider renting a house there while I wait to purchase my sloop or ketch.
The name itself, Cape Foulweather, doesn’t bring the idea of a warm sunny day to the average tourist. The truth is that Captain James Cook discovered and named the Point in 1778 when he first sighted the mainland of North America on the Oregon Coast, and one of the sudden fierce storms, which greeted his arrival, almost put an end to his historical expedition. Captain Cook never set foot on land at Cape Foulweather and couldn’t wait for the storm to pass so he could set sail again and leave this area. I have just the opposite draw to Cape Foulweather, even if there are winds up to 100 mph a few times each year.
I leaped at the opportunity to sail to the Point after we scrapped the idea of our Wednesday Night Regatta in Yaquina Bay in Newport, Oregon when there wasn’t even the slightest hope of a breeze strong enough to fill the sails for us to race. We placed our bets on the wind currents out at sea, as unpredictable as they always are, once we left the bay under power and raised the sails heading north a few miles to Cape Foulweather. The sea was as flat as I have ever seen it. Barely a ripple slapped against the boat. We were under power while we tried to catch some wind. Finally a whisper of wind became just strong enough for us to cut the engine and use full sails. It was slow going and unusually quiet. Seagulls were passing us the way a Lamborghini zips past a Geo Metro with an 8 watt blow dryer motor.
It was a short trip, even at our slow pace, but it was enough time spent on the sea to remind me that I don’t really care much about regattas and racing as much as I do spending quiet time in reverie on the sailboat. Since 1965 I have had my share of fast cars. But that’s another story for another blog. Boats are in a different category for me when it comes to speed and purpose.
Maybe it’s the fact that I’m older, wiser, and no longer in a hurry for my days to pass by quickly. Time seems to stand still when I’m sailing. I forget that there is already an influx of tourist traffic on Hwy 101. I don’t think about how long it takes me to drive home from Newport to Lincoln City. The sun doesn’t set until after 9pm here in the Pacific Northwest. It isn’t dark until well after 10pm, so my days are longer and my nights are very short. I don’t get much sleep and I can use all the siesta time kicking back on the boat, listening to a sail flap when it loses its wind now and then, and I have to do some quick tacking to avoid turning the engine back on.
One of my co-workers who has been sailing for over 25 years here told me he became a little bored with sailing. He said, “What can you do? You leave the bay, you go straight for a little while, then you either turn left or turn right. There’s nowhere to go.” I reminded him that it’s not the destination that matters. It’s the journey. Even if that journey only takes you a few miles to the left or the right. It’s a journey filled with valuable time that rejuvenates the heart and soul of expatriated Woody Creek dreamers like me.
The Con Man went to a seminar with Randy Udall, sponsored by the Sopris Foundation, and came away a changed man. With peak oil either here or imminent, with demand rising, it's impossible not to look at energy in a new and disturbing way. Life as we know it is about to change.
Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc., Frontier Airline’s parent company, declared bankruptcy after its principal credit card processor, First Data Corp., said it would begin withholding a greater share of proceeds from ticket sales. Last Valentine’s Day, Frontier announced plans to expand services to a host of Rocky Mountain towns, including Aspen. Burried at the bottom of many mid-February press releases on this subject, it’s common to find mention of Frontier’s fiscal losses attributed to rising fuel costs:
AP, April 11, 2008--The airline unveiled its plans about three weeks after reporting its fiscal third-quarter loss more than doubled, in part, due to high fuel costs.
On Friday, the price of crude futures settled at $110.14 per barrel, just off an all-time high of $112.20 just two days earlier. Back in February, light crude was hovering in the $85 to $95 range, where it had vacillated since November, 2007. In Frontier’s third quarter, prices of $75 a barrel were thought of as obscene.
Understand Frontier will not realize the effects of current gas prices for some time yet, and neither will we. It’s not a reach to think that where service to Aspen and other Rocky Mountain communities is concerned, Frontier may be spraying perfume on a dead dog, er, ah, lynx.
Here's some interesting cockpit footage of a Learjet 60 coming into Sardy Field. Listen early on as the flight computer starts barking "Pull Up" as the jet drops over what must be Triangle Peak.
Click here for the latest KNFO News with David Bach--the newscast that has won awards from both Associated Press and The Colorado Broadcasters Association.
The Sheriff's Office's don't ask-don't smell drug policy is hardly worth talking about any more--what more can you say about drug-induced law enforcement fade-to-black ops?--but heretofore Sheriff Bob has insisted without surcease that his guys and gals keep do a bang-up job on the highways and byways of Pitkin County. So it is with some glee that critics of said Sheriff (that would be me) saw the front page story this week that lionized the Wyatt Earp of The New West for bodaciously increasing the number of traffic arrests in 2007 compared to 2006.
There is something about the name Cape Foulweather that fascinates me. My mind races with thoughts ranging from the history of the area and wanting to know the facts, to images of a full length feature film of mystery and suspense starring Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Jack Nicholson. I wish there was an actual town of Cape Foulweather. I would consider renting a house there while I wait to purchase my sloop or ketch.
I leaped at the opportunity to sail to the Point after we scrapped the idea of our Wednesday Night Regatta in Yaquina Bay in Newport, Oregon when there wasn’t even the slightest hope of a breeze strong enough to fill the sails for us to race. We placed our bets on the wind currents out at sea, as unpredictable as they always are, once we left the bay under power and raised the sails heading north a few miles to Cape Foulweather. The sea was as flat as I have ever seen it. Barely a ripple slapped against the boat. We were under power while we tried to catch some wind. Finally a whisper of wind became just strong enough for us to cut the engine and use full sails. It was slow going and unusually quiet. Seagulls were passing us the way a Lamborghini zips past a Geo Metro with an 8 watt blow dryer motor.
